TransCon CNP Gains Ground Against Voxzogo with Positive Results and Higher Approval Odds

Ascendis Pharma’s (NASDAQ: ASND) TransCon CNP is emerging as a strong competitor to BioMarin’s (NASDAQ: BMRN) Voxzogo (Vosoritide), following positive results from its Phase III ApproaCH Trial, which evaluated its efficacy in children with achondroplasia, the most common form of dwarfism. After Ascendis announced these results, analysts have significantly revised their revenue forecasts for TransCon CNP, while projections for Voxzogo were lowered. Visible Alpha consensus estimates show TransCon CNP is expected to generate $26 million in revenue in 2024, an 86.7% increase from the $14 million previously expected. The drug’s probability of FDA approval has also risen to 84.5%, up from 61.8% prior to the trial results being announced.

Despite these gains for TransCon CNP, Voxzogo retains a significant first-to-market advantage, with its forecast revenues still expected to far exceed those of TransCon. However, if approved, TransCon CNP could offer a dosing advantage, requiring weekly injections compared to Voxzogo’s daily dosing. Voxzogo was approved back in November 2021 and generated $470 million in revenue in 2023.

Ascendis plans to submit a New Drug Application to the FDA for TransCon CNP in Q1 2025, followed by a Marketing Authorisation Application to the European Medicines Agency (EMA) in Q3 2025.