Ryanair’s Q1-Q2 Slide Prompts Lowered 2025 Forecast Amid Soft Demand and Cost Pressures

Ryanair (NASDAQ: RYAAY) grappled with a tough start to fiscal 2025 as a steep -15% drop in ticket prices dented first-quarter revenues and profits. The budget carrier downgraded its 2025 outlook, citing subdued consumer spending, elevated staff costs, and delays in Boeing aircraft deliveries. Following these results, analysts revised forecasts downward: 2025 revenue estimates now stand at €13.8 billion, down -5.8% from PreQ1 estimates of €14.7 billion, while net income expectations have been slashed by nearly -30% to €1.5 billion from PreQ1 projections of €2.2 billion.

The airline’s recent second-quarter performance offered some respite. Revenue increased +2.8% year-over-year to $5.07 billion, just shy of the $5.1 billion consensus from Visible Alpha, while net income’s annual decline slowed to -5.5%, with a +3% sequential improvement. Average passenger fare declined by €-6.8% to 61, suggesting some stabilization in fare declines.

For the full fiscal year, Visible Alpha consensus points to only modest revenue growth of +3.1%, to €13.9 billion, while net income is projected to decline by -19%, to €1.6 billion. Average passenger fares are expected to fall by -7% year-over-year, settling at €46 as competitive pressures weigh on pricing.