Centessa Pharmaceuticals’ Sleep Disorder Drug Shows Early Promise, Accelerating Projections

Centessa Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: CNTA) recently announced positive interim data from a Phase 1 trial of its investigational drug, ORX750, aimed at addressing narcolepsy and other sleep-wake disorders. The trial, conducted in acutely sleep-deprived healthy volunteers, highlighted the drug’s potential efficacy as a selective orexin receptor 2 (OX2R) agonist. ORX750, developed using Nxera Pharma’s (TSE: 4565) proprietary technology, targets the specific orexin neuron loss underlying narcolepsy type 1 (NT1), with potential applications for type 2 narcolepsy (NT2), idiopathic hypersomnia, and other disorders with normal orexin levels.

Following the promising trial results, analysts have revised their forecasts, now anticipating ORX750’s market debut in 2028, a year earlier than initially projected. First-year sales are expected to reach $18 million, with a notable revision in 2029 estimates: Visible Alpha consensus now forecasts risk-adjusted revenues of $68 million, a substantial 154% increase from previous projections of $27 million. Analysts estimate that ORX750 could generate up to $1.4 billion in cumulative revenue in its early years, with a CAGR of 146% between 2028 and 2032. Currently, the drug has a 42% probability of success (POS).

Centessa aims to move swiftly, advancing ORX750 to Phase 2 trials in patients with NT1, NT2, and idiopathic hypersomnia by the fourth quarter of 2024. If successful, this could mark a significant advance in the treatment of sleep-wake disorders.