Estée Lauder’s Outlook Dims as China and Travel Retail Weigh on Sales

Estée Lauder Companies (NYSE: EL) is navigating a turbulent year, facing falling sales and profits due to weakened consumer sentiment in China and weakness in Asia Travel Retail. For its first fiscal quarter, the luxury brand reported a -4% year-over-year drop in net sales, down to $3.4 billion from $3.52 billion, with organic net sales also contracting by -5%. This decline marks a sequential decrease of -13%, signaling ongoing pressures across key markets.

The company’s regional performance reflects these headwinds. Asia-Pacific revenues tumbled -11% compared to the previous year, while the Americas and EMEA registered a milder decline of -1.7% and -1.8% respectively. However, with the Chinese market and Asian travel retail segments under sustained pressure, Visible Alpha consensus forecasts Estée Lauder’s revenue growth to continue decelerating in the coming quarters.

Amid heightened market uncertainty, Estée Lauder has also withdrawn its fiscal 2025 outlook. Following this, Visible Alpha data shows analysts have lowered projections, now expecting full-year revenue to reach $15 billion in 2025—5% below the pre-quarter estimate of $16 billion. Revenue from Asia-Pacific is expected to decline -9% year-on-year to $4.5 billion, while EMEA is projected to see a -5% contraction to $5.9 billion. The Americas, however, is anticipated to see a slight recovery, with revenue growing +0.3% to $4.6 billion, reflecting a potential stabilization of demand in the region.