First Solar Sees Q3 Decline, Analysts Anticipate Q4 Rebound Amid Booking Challenges

First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) reported a tough Q3 with net sales down -12% from the previous quarter. The company also trimmed its outlook for the full year, reflecting growing pains for the U.S. solar panel maker. Nevertheless, consensus estimates from Visible Alpha signal a potential turnaround in the fourth quarter. Analysts anticipate net sales to surge +67% quarter-on-quarter to $1.5 billion, driven primarily by a recovery in solar module shipments. After declining by -12% in Q3, total shipments are estimated to increase by +80% in the upcoming quarter to 5,309 megawatts (MW). For the full year, analysts expect First Solar to generate $4.2 billion in net sales, up +26% from last year, while shipments are expected to rise to 14,309 MW. 

Despite the anticipated recovery in sales and shipments, supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures are expected to weigh on the pace of new bookings. Analysts forecast net bookings to plummet -83% year-over-year in 2024 to 4.8 gigawatt hours (GWh), down from 28 GWh last year. While a sharp recovery is expected in 2025, with net bookings projected to grow 141% to 11.6 GWh, volumes are unlikely to return to the 2022 peak of 48.3 GW.