One97 Communications Faces Revenue Pressure as Banking Curbs Weigh on Growth

One97 Communications Ltd. (NSE: PAYTM), the parent company of Paytm, reported a -35.8% year-on-year revenue decline in the third quarter of 2025, marking its fourth consecutive quarter of contraction. The downturn follows restrictions imposed by India’s banking regulators on Paytm Payments Bank (PPBL), the company’s banking arm. The regulator’s order to halt all transactions effectively froze PPBL’s operations, also impacting Paytm’s Payment division, including its Unified Payments Interface (UPI) offerings, which depended on PPBL as the banking partner.

According to Visible Alpha consensus, these headwinds are expected to drive a -28% year-on-year decline in One97’s full-year 2025 revenue to ₹71.4 billion. The Payment and Financial Services segment, a core driver of Paytm’s business, is projected to shrink by -29%, reflecting lower gross merchandise value (GMV), weaker wallet transactions, and a drop in merchant and customer activity. Meanwhile, revenue from the Commerce and Cloud Services segment is forecast to decline by -30%.

Average monthly transacting users are forecast to fall to 85 million in 2025, down from 96 million a year earlier. However, analysts anticipate a recovery in 2026 as Paytm adjusts its operations, narrows expenses, and PPBL resumes activity. Despite the near-term revenue pressures, One97 is expected to narrow its net loss to ₹2.7 billion in 2025 from ₹14.2 billion in 2024, with analysts forecasting a shift to net profitability in 2026.