Akeso, Summit slide on mixed drug trial, but long-term prospects buoy analysts

Chinese biotech group Akeso (HKG: 9926) and its US partner Summit Therapeutics (NASDAQ: SMMT) saw shares tumble after their experimental lung cancer drug, ivonescimab, delivered mixed results in a pivotal phase III trial. The treatment, tested in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), significantly slowed disease progression when combined with chemotherapy — cutting the risk by 48% compared with chemotherapy alone. But the trial fell short of meeting its most critical benchmark: a statistically significant improvement in overall survival, the gold standard for cancer drug approval in the US.

Despite the disappointment, analysts remain bullish on the drug’s long-term potential. Ivonescimab has received Fast Track designation from the US Food and Drug Administration — a status expected to speed up the regulatory process. Consensus estimates from Visible Alpha suggest Summit could generate $38.4 million in risk-adjusted revenue by 2026 from ivonescimab for NSCLC, with forecasts climbing to $2.8 billion by 2029 and $10.5 billion by 2035, contingent on approval.

Akeso, which secured Chinese regulatory clearance for ivonescimab in May 2024, is expected to book $235 million in revenue in 2026, rising to $1 billion by 2034. The approval was bolstered by a head-to-head trial showing superiority to Merck’s blockbuster Keytruda in a subset of previously untreated NSCLC patients with PD-L1 expression — a key biomarker used in immunotherapy.

The two companies are pursuing a global rollout of the therapy under a $5 billion licensing deal signed in late 2022, which gives Summit commercial rights across the US, Canada, Europe, and Japan. Summit has already launched three phase III trials in these markets — a move seen as critical to unlocking ivonescimab’s full commercial potential.