Horizon Robotics rides smart driving wave as ADS sales accelerate

Horizon Robotics (HKG: 9660), a key supplier to Volkswagen and BYD in China, is emerging as a key beneficiary of China’s fast-growing autonomous driving market. The AI chip developer is seeing strong momentum in its automated driving systems (ADS) division, which is projected to become its largest revenue contributor in 2025.

Consensus estimates from Visible Alpha point to a near fivefold increase in ADS revenue to CNY1.3 billion in 2025, a +356% jump from 2024. By 2030, the segment is expected to account for more than 70% of total revenue, up sharply from just 12% in 2024.

The surge reflects rising demand from automakers integrating autonomous driving systems. ADS shipment volumes are forecast to grow from 450 units in 2024 to more than 13,000 by the end of the decade — highlighting Horizon’s pivotal role in the next phase of China’s automotive innovation. In comparison, Horizon’s advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) segment is expected to show signs of fatigue, with revenue projected to fall -15% to CNY295 million in 2025 and unit shipments set to drop -17% to 1,964.

Overall, Horizon Robotics is expected to deliver strong double-digit growth in 2025, with total revenue projected to rise +47% to CNY3.5 billion — driven by gains in the ADS segment, despite a decline in ADAS sales.