Gilead Analysts Begin Forecasting Remdesivir Sales for Covid-19 Treatment

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recently approved Gilead’s antiviral Remdesivir for emergency use authorization (EUA) as a treatment for COVID-19 in severe stages. Gilead is donating their current supply of about 1.5M individual doses, equating to more than 140K treatment courses (assuming a 10-day treatment course), which will be distributed by the federal government to areas most impacted by COVID-19. Gilead’s goal is to manufacture 500K treatment courses by October, 1M by December and, if needed, millions more afterwards.

The commercial opportunity for Gilead is up for debate among analysts, but the company does not believe Remdesivir will hurt their overall profitability. Gilead hasn’t yet talked specifically about pricing, but the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review (ICER), an independent non-profit that accesses the value of drugs, suggested Remdesivir should be priced between $10-$4,500 per patient, with the lower-end $10 factoring in only the cost of ingredients and ignoring investments and expenses incurred during development.

The average estimate among analysts is for Remdesivir to generate $566M in sales in 2020 and peak at $1.3B in 2022, according to Visible Alpha consensus. For reference, Gilead’s total sales last year were $22.5B.

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This content was created using Visible Alpha Insights.

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