Netflix (NFLX) Q4 2023 Earnings Preview

Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) will report Q4 2023 results on Tuesday, January 23, 2024. Here are the key numbers that we’re watching.

Figure 1: Netflix – consensus expectations for Q4 2023, past earnings surprises, revisions, and CAGR

Source: Visible Alpha consensus (January 22, 2024). “Surprise” indicates the direction that specific line items beat or missed. “Revisions” show the trajectory of line items from a given date.

Netflix Q4 2023 Earnings Preview

According to Visible Alpha consensus, total revenues of $8.7 billion and operating income of $1.2 billion expected for Q4 have remained flattish from last quarter, driven by solid expectations for U.S. streaming. Since last quarter, ad-supported revenue has been revised upward 28% from $72 million to $92 million. While there does not appear to be a shift in expectations from the October quarter, questions remain around the investments in the ad-tier, the full impact of the strikes, and increased competition and its impact on paid-sharing.

The stock has traded up around 40% since last quarter’s October release and has remained higher (currently around $483), close to its 52-week high of $495, driven by optimism around the strikes ending and resilience in their net adds. Will the outlook for 2024 support the upward trajectory of Netflix’s stock price?

Figure 2: Netflix consensus estimates

Source: Visible Alpha consensus (January 22, 2024). Stock price data courtesy of FactSet. Netflix stock price is as of the market close on January 19, 2024. “Ad-supported revenue – Advertising – UCAN Streaming” is a new line item that recently started to be modeled by analysts.