Netflix (NFLX) Q4 2023 Earnings Preview

Netflix NFLX Q4 2023 Earnings Preview

Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) will report Q4 2023 results on Tuesday, January 23, 2024. Here are the key numbers that we’re watching.

Figure 1: Netflix – consensus expectations for Q4 2023, past earnings surprises, revisions, and CAGR

Netflix Earnings Preview

Source: Visible Alpha consensus (January 22, 2024). “Surprise” indicates the direction that specific line items beat or missed. “Revisions” show the trajectory of line items from a given date.

Netflix Q4 2023 Earnings Preview

According to Visible Alpha consensus, total revenues of $8.7 billion and operating income of $1.2 billion expected for Q4 have remained flattish from last quarter, driven by solid expectations for U.S. streaming. Since last quarter, ad-supported revenue has been revised upward 28% from $72 million to $92 million. While there does not appear to be a shift in expectations from the October quarter, questions remain around the investments in the ad-tier, the full impact of the strikes, and increased competition and its impact on paid-sharing.

The stock has traded up around 40% since last quarter’s October release and has remained higher (currently around $483), close to its 52-week high of $495, driven by optimism around the strikes ending and resilience in their net adds. Will the outlook for 2024 support the upward trajectory of Netflix’s stock price?

Figure 2: Netflix consensus estimates

Netflix Consensus Estimates

Source: Visible Alpha consensus (January 22, 2024). Stock price data courtesy of FactSet. Netflix stock price is as of the market close on January 19, 2024. “Ad-supported revenue – Advertising – UCAN Streaming” is a new line item that recently started to be modeled by analysts.


About Melissa Otto, CFA

Melissa is Head of TMT Research at Visible Alpha. She spent 20+ years as an equity analyst and portfolio manager. At TIAA/Nuveen, Melissa specialized in covering global technology and consumer stocks and the Pan-Asia region. She also managed one of Fidelity's equity research teams as a director of research. In addition to her equity investing career, Melissa worked directly with software engineering teams at Bloomberg, Microsoft, and MSCI building cloud-based solutions to centralize and aggregate critical investment data for investors. Melissa studied Japanese at Harvard University, received her MA in economics from Brandeis University and MS degree from the University of Pennsylvania, and is a CFA charterholder. She is certified in Azure Fundamentals and Agile Project Management.

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