Nvidia, Dell & Snowflake Earnings Review: Fiscal Q4 2025

Nvidia’s Fiscal Q4 2025 Earnings

Nvidia delivered total revenues for Q4 of $39.3 billion, beating Visible Alpha’s consensus estimate of $38.3 billion by $1.0 billion. This was driven by continued revenue growth in Nvidia’s Data Center segment, which saw its Q4 revenue grow to $35.6 billion, $1.4 billion ahead of the $34.2 billion consensus estimate coming into the quarter and capturing the beat to expectations.

This revenue surge has continued to be driven by strong demand for Hopper GPUs, particularly from cloud service providers. Management highlighted that Blackwell revenue of $11.0 billion exceeded their initial Q4 estimate of several billion dollars. CEO Jensen Huang called out in the earnings call that Blackwell demand is “strong”.

However, the Data Center segment’s non-GAAP gross margin dipped to 76.2% in Q4, slightly above consensus of 75.7%, but lower than previous quarters. This muted the magnitude of the surprise to the EPS line with non-GAAP diluted EPS of $.89/share, exceeding the consensus of $.85.

Nvidia Estimate Revision Trends

Source: Visible Alpha consensus (March 10, 2025). Stock price data courtesy of S&P. Nvidia’s current stock price is as of the market close on March 7, 2025.

The Outlook: Concerns about Blackwell’s Ramp and Gross Margin

For fiscal Q4 2025, Nvidia guided nearly $1 billion ahead of expectations to $43.0 billion in total revenue, with analysts now projecting the Data Center segment to make up $39.3 billion, up from $38.0 billion.

However, according to management, as Blackwell ramps, gross margin is expected to moderate to the low 70s in the first half. When Blackwell is fully ramped, the Company expects gross margin to be in the mid-70s later in the year. However, there are questions about the timing of Blackwell’s trajectory and how that will be reflected in the quarters.

This commentary in the earnings call led to a decline in the Data Center gross margins for both FY 2026 and FY 2027. Sentiment seems to be a bit more conservative on the magnitude of the earnings impact from Blackwell. It is worth noting that the timing of the Blackwell ramp will be a critical dimension to the investment thesis. There continues to be debate among analysts about the quarterly pace and timing of the B-series and GB-series ramps and how much the long-term expected growth is projected to add to revenues in FY 2026 and FY 2027.

According to Visible Alpha consensus, Data Center revenues for FY 2026 are now expected to be $188.5 billion, up from $179.8 billion on November 20, 2024, with consensus EPS increasing to $4.60/share, up $.14/share on margins resuming in the second half.

Nvidia Consensus Estimates

Source: Visible Alpha consensus (March 10, 2025). Stock price data courtesy of S&P. Nvidia’s current stock price is as of the market close on March 7, 2025.

Dell’s Fiscal Q4 2025 Earnings

Dell delivered total revenues for Q4 of $23.9 billion, slightly missing Visible Alpha’s consensus estimate of $24.6 billion by $0.7 billion. The Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) segment saw its Q4 revenue come in at $11.4 billion, in line with the consensus estimate coming into the quarter. This segment was driven by a 37% increase in Servers and Networking. However, this was slightly below the level that was expected. In addition, Storage increased 5%, slightly ahead of expectations and with growth increasing quarter over quarter.

The company delivered a respectable AI server backlog of $4.1 billion in Q4. In Q4, the company shipped $2.1 billion of AI servers. The AI server backlog is expected to more than double in FY 2026, driven by Blackwell.

The ISG segment’s non-GAAP gross margin came in solid at 36.6% in Q4, leading the ISG operating profit margin to come in at 18.1%, ahead of the 14.4% expected. In addition, Dell expects the ISG operating margin to be stable. For FY 2026, the ISG operating margin has increased 100 bps since the release to now 12.6%.

Revisions of Dell Estimates

Source: Visible Alpha consensus (March 10, 2025). Stock price data courtesy of S&P. Dell’s current stock price is as of the market close on March 7, 2025.

The Outlook: Below Expectations

Near-term Growth

For fiscal Q1 2025, Dell guided to $22.5-23.5 billion in total revenue, in line with pre-Q expectations of $23.0 billion. The ISG segment revenue is projected to make up $10.5 billion, and to see its margin decline quarter over quarter. The ISG consensus margin for Q1 is expected to be 10.9%, up from 10.6% at the time of the earnings release.

Long-term Outlook

Consensus for Dell’s FY 2026 revenues is currently at $103.5 billion, in line with guidance. ISG’s margins are trending stable year over year. Currently, Visible Alpha consensus is projecting ISG’s operating profit margin of10.8% in Q1 this fiscal year to expand to 14.2% by Q4 and to 12.6% by the end of fiscal year 2026.

Looking further out, analysts remain upbeat on the demand for AI servers. Analysts expect to see AI server revenue generate $15.6 billion in FY 2026, up from $9.8 billion in revenue in FY 2025. ISG revenue is expected to grow to $51.2 billion in FY 2026, with most of the year-over-year increase coming from the AI servers. ISG profitability is expected to hit 12.6% operating profit margin this year. How long will it take to return to the previous 13% levels?

According to Visible Alpha consensus, EPS is expected to grow 15% to $9.38/share in FY 2026. Estimates range from $9.23/share to $9.69/share and have narrowed, putting the FY 2026 P/E consensus at 10x, and in the 9x-10x range, down from 13x-15x.

DELL stock has traded down around 17.6% since last quarter’s earnings release. Will the ramp in AI servers continue? Will ISG’s profitability return to beat expectations and be a catalyst in H1 2026?

Dell Consensus Estimates

Source: Visible Alpha consensus (March 10, 2025). Stock price data courtesy of S&P. Dell’s current stock price is as of the market close on March 7, 2025.

Snowflake Q4 2025 Earnings & Outlook Beat Expectations

According to Visible Alpha consensus, total revenues of $943 million and operating income of $93 million beat consensus expectations in Q4 2025. Operating profit expectations for the Q1 have remained close to $55 million. However, these estimates are still significantly lower than the initial estimate of $115 million in January 2024. Operating profit expectations for FY 2026 and FY 2027 have moved up since the release. Overall growth continues to be driven by the strength of Snowflake’s data platform, the potential network effects of moving more data there, and the promising outlook for their new AI-related products.

Currently, there is debate about gross margin performance. Based on Visible Alpha consensus, the non-GAAP gross margin estimates range from 75% to 77% for Q1 2026. For FY 2026, Visible Alpha consensus for gross margin is 75%, and is expected to remain at the 75% level through FY 2027. It is still below the 77% previously expected for FY 2026 at the beginning of last year, but consensus may have now settled at the correct level of 75%.

The stock declined 15.4% since the earnings release but has increased 16.1% since the November quarter’s release. Could the Q1 release provide more visibility into FY 2026 and lead to another positive catalyst for the stock?

Snowflake Revisions

Source: Visible Alpha consensus (March 7, 2025). Stock price data courtesy of S&P. Snowflake’s current stock price is as of the market close on March 10, 2025.