Nvidia Earnings Preview: Fiscal Q4 2025

Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) will report fiscal Q4 2025 results on Wednesday, February 26, 2025, after the market close. Here are the key numbers that we’re watching.

Nvidia – Consensus Expectations for Q4 2025, Past Earnings Surprises, Revisions, and CAGR

Source: Visible Alpha consensus (February 18, 2025). “Previous Surprises” indicate the direction that specific line items beat or missed. “Consensus Revisions” show the trajectory of line items from a given date.

Nvidia’s Q4 2025 Earnings Preview

According to Visible Alpha consensus, total revenues of $38.1 billion expected for Fiscal Q4 2025 have continued to increase steadily since the beginning of last year. Overall growth continues to be driven by optimism about the strength of Nvidia’s Data Center segment. This segment has seen its expected top-line performance for Q4 increase from $22.2 billion in January 2024 to its current projection of $34.0 billion, up over 50%. More recently, the Data Center segment’s expected revenues for Q4 have edged up only slightly higher from $33.6 to $34.0, according to consensus, demonstrating a slowdown to revisions from H1. Based on Visible Alpha consensus, Data Center revenue estimates in Q4 2025 range from $31.8 billion to $38.1 billion. This expected revenue surge has been driven by strong demand for its GPUs from cloud service providers, and the move to accelerated computing in the data centers for AI. However, there are questions around the outlook for Nvidia’s new solution, Blackwell, that claims to significantly reduce energy consumption and cost for customers.

Due to differing views about the potential for Blackwell, there is significant debate about the performance of the Data Center segment going forward. Blackwell revenue is expected to jump from $3-4 billion to $75.1 billion, driving Data Center revenue of $183.8 billion in FY 2026. The estimates for this line item range from $152.4 billion to $236.0 billion and remain a significant market debate, due to the questions around Blackwell’s ramp. There have been concerns about the timing of Blackwell’s growth and the total addressable market (TAM) for this solution. While the pace of analysts’ upward revisions to the Data Center segment has moderated since the first half of this year, it will be important to see how Nvidia guides the market for Q1 and for FY 2026, and to what extent new AI infrastructure projects, like Stargate, will support continued demand. In particular, the company’s commentary and Q1 outlook for Blackwell will likely be important in the Q4 earnings call.

For Q4 2025, Visible Alpha consensus for the gross profit of this segment has increased nearly $9.0 billion since last year and has remained around the $26.0 billion level since the Q2 release in August, a slowdown from the pace of revisions in the first half. It is worth noting that the consensus gross profit margin for the Data Center segment for FY 2026 has decreased by nearly 300bps to 75.2% year-over-year, reflecting lower expectations. In contrast to the gross margin, the operating profit margin for FY 2026 and FY 2027 is projected to move higher from this year’s projected 62.2%. These dynamics in consensus estimates are causing the expected FY 2026 consensus P/E to be 31x and to range from 23x to 36x.

The stock has traded down 4.8% since the last release but has been up around 180% since last January. Could the Q4 release provide the next positive catalyst for the stock or are expectations largely priced in for now?

Nvidia Consensus Revisions

Source: Visible Alpha consensus (February 18, 2025). Stock price data courtesy of S&P Global. Nvidia’s current stock price is as of the market close on February 14, 2025.

Nvidia’s Key Financial Items

Source: Visible Alpha consensus (February 18, 2025). Stock price data courtesy of S&P Global. Nvidia’s current stock price is as of the market close on February 14, 2025.