Nvidia (NVDA) Earnings Preview: Fiscal Q3 2025

Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) will report fiscal Q3 2025 results on Wednesday, November 20, 2024, after the market close. Here are the key numbers that we’re watching.

Nvidia – Consensus Expectations for Q3 2025, Past Earnings Surprises, Revisions, and CAGR

Source: Visible Alpha consensus (November 13, 2024). “Previous Surprises” indicate the direction that specific line items beat or missed. “Consensus Revisions” show the trajectory of line items from a given date.

Nvidia’s Q3 2025 Earnings Preview

According to Visible Alpha consensus, total revenues of $33.1 billion expected for Fiscal Q3 2025 have continued to increase steadily since the beginning of the year. Overall growth continues to be driven by optimism about the strength of Nvidia’s Data Center segment. This segment has seen its expected top-line performance for Q3 increase from $20.8 billion in January 2024 to its current projection of $29.0 billion, up nearly 50%. This revenue surge has been driven by strong demand for its GPUs from cloud service providers, and the move to accelerated computing in the data centers for AI.

More recently, the Data Center segment’s expected revenues in Q3 edged up slightly higher from $28.5 to $29.0, according to consensus. While the pace of analysts’ upward revisions to the Data Center segment has moderated since the first half of this year, it will be important to see how Nvidia guides the market for Q4 and the rest of FY 2025, and to what extent higher pricing and volumes will be expected to continue.

Currently, there is significant debate about the performance of the Data Center segment. Based on Visible Alpha consensus, this business is projected to generate $32.5 billion in revenues in Q4 2025, with estimates ranging from $29.2 billion to $40.1 billion. For FY 2025, Visible Alpha consensus for this segment has increased nearly $1.0 billion to $110.5 billion since the Q2 release in August, a slowdown from the pace of revisions in the first half. However, the estimates now range from $106.4 billion to $119.2 billion, a significant narrowing from the February range of $65.4 billion to $121.2 billion.

In particular, the company’s commentary and outlook for Blackwell will likely be important in the Q3 earnings call.  Blackwell revenue is expected to jump from $3-4 billion this year to $55.8 billion next year. Looking ahead, consensus expects FY 2026 Data Center revenue of $170.8 billion. The estimates for this line item range from $148.4 billion to $212.5 billion and remain a significant market debate, due to the questions around Blackwell’s ramp. It is worth noting that the consensus gross profit for the Data Center segment for FY 2026 has decreased by nearly $8 billion since last quarter, reflecting lower expectations for next year. In addition, for FY 2026 and FY 2027, consensus is projecting the operating profit margin to come down from this year’s peak of 66%. These dynamics in consensus estimates are causing the expected FY 2026 consensus P/E to be 36x and to range from 27x to 52x.

The stock has traded up 56% since the May release, and is up around 200% year-to-date. Could the Q3 release provide the next positive catalyst for the stock or are expectations largely priced in for now?

Nvidia Consensus Revisions

Source: Visible Alpha consensus (November 13, 2024). Stock price data courtesy of FactSet. Nvidia’s current stock price is as of the market close on November 12, 2024.

Nvidia’s Key Financial Items

Source: Visible Alpha consensus (November 13, 2024). Stock price data courtesy of FactSet. Nvidia’s current stock price is as of the market close on November 12, 2024.