Snowflake (SNOW) Earnings Preview: Fiscal Q4 2024

Snowflake Inc. (NYSE: SNOW) will report fiscal Q4 2024 results on Wednesday, February 28, 2024, after the market close. Here are the key numbers that we’re watching.

Figure 1: Snowflake – consensus expectations for Q4 2024, past earnings surprises, revisions, and CAGR

Source: Visible Alpha consensus (February 21, 2024). “Previous Surprises” indicate the direction that specific line items beat or missed. “Consensus Revisions” show the trajectory of line items from a given date.

Snowflake Q4 2024 earnings preview

According to Visible Alpha consensus, total revenues of $723 million and operating income of $37 million expected for Q4 2024 have not moved much from November 2023. However, these estimates are lower than the initial estimates in January 2023. While expectations have come down for FY 2024, overall growth continues to be driven by optimism about the strength of Snowflake’s data platform and the potential network effects of moving more data there.

Currently, there is debate about gross margin performance. Based on Visible Alpha consensus, the non-GAAP gross margin estimates range from 75% to 79% for Q4 2024. For FY 2025, Visible Alpha consensus for gross margin has increased from 76% in August 2023 to 77% now, but analysts’ estimates range from 76% to 79%.

The stock has traded up 25% since last quarter’s November release, and is up over 50% since January 2023. Could the Q4 release provide the next positive catalyst for the stock or are expectations largely priced in for now?

Figure 2: Snowflake consensus estimates

Source: Visible Alpha consensus (February 22, 2024). Stock price data courtesy of FactSet. Snowflake’s current stock price is as of the market close on February 21, 2024.