Analysts Anticipate Net Charge-offs to Peak in 2024 Across Leading U.S. Credit Card Issuers

According to Visible Alpha’s consensus, net charge-off rates on credit cards are expected to hit their highest levels in 2024 across major U.S. card issuers, including Discover Financial Services (NYSE: DFS), Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE: COF), American Express (NYSE: AXP), Synchrony Financial (NYSE: SYF), JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Citigroup (NYSE: C), and Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC). Over the past two years, net charge-offs for U.S. banks have been steadily creeping up as loan quality issues have gone beyond consumer loans, affecting other credit types too. Lenders with significant credit card portfolios have experienced the sharpest rise in charge-offs, as retail borrowers have struggled with persistently high interest rates.

In 2021 and 2022, net charge-off rates were at their lowest, thanks to significant fiscal stimulus from the U.S. federal government, which provided financial support to consumers and businesses. However, as the economy recovered from the pandemic, rising inflation and higher interest rates, coupled with the drop in pandemic-era stimulus, left more U.S. consumers struggling to manage growing debt levels. Visible Alpha estimates show the average net charge-off rate is expected to rise to 4.58% in 2024 across these seven issuers, up from 3.36% last year, before slightly declining to 4.43% in 2025.