Boeing’s commercial revival could be clouded by tariff uncertainty
Boeing (NYSE: BA) reported a significant boost in Q1 commercial airplane deliveries, reaching 130 aircraft compared to 83 in the same period last year. The company is set to announce its fiscal Q1 2025 results on Wednesday, April 23, 2025. According to Visible Alpha consensus, Boeing’s revenue is expected to surge by +18% year-over-year, hitting $19.6 billion—a sharp reversal from the -31% decline recorded in Q4. This growth is largely driven by a rebound in commercial airplane sales, with expected revenue jumping +77% to $8.3 billion.
Performance in Boeing’s defense, space, and security division is expected to remain weak, but signs of stabilization are emerging. Revenue for the segment is estimated to fall -9%—an improvement from the -31% decline in the same quarter last year and a -55% slump in Q4 2024.
Despite the expectations of a good start to 2025, a key risk for Boeing lies in the impact of tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration. With 80% of Boeing’s commercial aircraft deliveries going to international customers, these levies could severely affect Boeing’s operations, including its suppliers and workforce. The long-term financial consequences remain uncertain, adding an element of risk as the company strives to recover from a near $12 billion net loss last year.