Carvana On Track for Growth in 2024

Carvana (NYSE: CVNA) has faced some growth challenges starting in 2022, with higher interest rates and a weaker used-car market. Following a difficult 2023, where the company saw a significant decrease in revenues—dropping by -27% in retail used car sales and -4% in its wholesale division—the online used car retailer is projected to see mild recoveries across its key revenue segments in 2024. Analysts expect a more robust growth comeback in 2025, according to Visible Alpha consensus.

For 2024, analysts expect a +6% year-over-year increase in retail used car sales, reaching $7.9 billion. This growth is expected to accelerate in 2025, with a projected +15% increase. In terms of the company’s wholesale used car segment, sales are forecasted to decline by -2% in 2024 compared to the previous year, before rebounding with +11% growth in 2025. This expected revenue growth is fueled by a recovery in the number of vehicles sold by Carvana. Having declined by -22% year over year in 2023, the online used car retailer is projected to sell 508K used cars in 2024, marking an +8% year-over-year increase. By 2025, the total used car units sold are projected to rise by +16% YoY to 588K vehicles.