Domino’s Pizza Set for 2024 Revenue Rebound, But Store Growth Lags

According to Visible Alpha consensus, Domino’s Pizza (NYSE: DPZ) is expected to see a revenue recovery in 2024. After a -1.3% decline in 2023, the company is forecasted to achieve a +7.2% year-over-year increase in 2024, bringing total revenue to $4.8 billion. This positive momentum is expected to continue into 2025, with revenue projected to grow by +6.6% to $5.1 billion.

The 2024 recovery is expected to be largely driven by a rebound in supply chain and domestic company-owned store revenues. Supply chain revenues, which represent approximately 60% of Domino’s total revenue and fell by -1.4% year-over-year in 2023, are projected to grow by +7.0% in 2024, boosted by higher order volumes and increased food basket prices. Additionally, revenues from domestic company-owned stores are expected to rise by +6.0% year-over-year in 2024, a marked improvement from the -16% decline experienced in 2023.

Despite the positive revenue outlook, the forecast for net store additions remains more uncertain. Before Domino’s Q2 earnings release on July 18, analysts projected the company would add 1,096 restaurants in 2024, bringing the total store count to 21,686. However, after the earnings report, this projection was lowered to 862 new stores, resulting in a total of 21,451 for 2024. The downgrade is largely due to a reduction in expectations for international franchised store openings, which were revised down from 915 to 679.