E.l.f. Beauty’s Outlook Sours Despite Strong Quarter

E.l.f. Beauty (NYSE: ELF) delivered a robust third quarter of 2025, with net sales surging 31% year-on-year to $355 million—outpacing Visible Alpha consensus estimates by 7.6%. Yet, despite exceeding expectations, the cosmetics brand has trimmed its full-year forecast, citing economic uncertainty and softening demand. The revised guidance sent shares lower.

The company’s core Gen Z consumer base is facing mounting financial pressures and political uncertainty, compounded by concerns over the future of TikTok in the U.S.—a platform central to E.l.f.’s digital marketing strategy. Additionally, the introduction of a 10% tariff on Chinese imports threatens to push up costs, as the majority of E.l.f.’s products are manufactured there.

Reflecting these headwinds, analysts have sharply revised their projections for the fourth quarter. Net sales are now expected to fall to $328 million, a -14.3% drop from prior estimates of $383 million. U.S. revenue is projected to decline to $259 million, a drop of -14.8% from PreQ estimates, while international sales are forecast at $69 million. Meanwhile, Naturium, the skincare brand E.l.f. acquired in September 2023, is also set to post lower-than-expected revenue, with estimates revised down -12.3% to $34 million.