Enphase Energy to See Revenues Dip in 2024, Strong Rebound in 2025

Enphase Energy (NASDAQ: ENPH), a U.S.-based global provider of solar microinverters, energy storage, and other related technologies, is projected to experience a -29% year-over-year decline in net revenues in 2024, according to Visible Alpha consensus. The company’s revenues are expected to be dragged down by a -37% revenue decline from its Solar Microinverter segment, which accounts for approximately 79% of its total revenue.

Analysts have been trimming forecasts for the company over the last year as metering reform in California, the largest solar power market in the U.S., and high lending rates have caused a significant drop in consumer demand for the company’s rooftop solar inverters. In California, NEM 3.0 replaced the previous net metering tariff, sharply slashing payments to rooftop solar owners for exporting clean energy to the grid. This change, combined with rising interest rates, has posed some new challenges for rooftop solar installers, such as Enphase. Demand for solar power has also slowed down in Europe, leading to high inventory levels for Enphase.

2025 net revenues are expected to rebound to 2023 levels and expand further in subsequent years. Net revenue projections for 2030, at $5.1 billion, are well more than double 2023.