IndusInd Bank’s 4Q Outlook Sours as Discrepancies in Derivative Trade Emerge

Indian private sector bank IndusInd (NSE: INDUSINDBK) shares have fallen more than 30% over the past week after the private lender disclosed accounting irregularities linked to internal derivatives. The bank is expected to account for the impact in the upcoming quarter, prompting analysts to sharply downgrade their forecasts for profitability and earnings.

Visible Alpha consensus estimates now project IndusInd’s net profit for the fourth quarter at ₹8.6 billion — down 36.7% from previous estimates of ₹13.7 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) have been cut by 32.6%, from ₹21.4 to ₹14.4, reflecting weaker per-share profitability and diminished shareholder value. Net interest income (NII), a key measure of lending profitability, is now forecast at ₹50.1 billion, a 5.8% decline from earlier projections.

Full-year forecasts have also been revised lower, albeit less drastically. Analysts now expect IndusInd Bank’s full-year net profit at ₹57.6 billion, down 8% from the previous ₹62.6 billion estimate. Annual EPS has been reduced by 8.2% to ₹77.3, while NII is now forecast at ₹209.9 billion, 1.4% below previous projections — suggesting continued pressure on the bank’s core earnings amid shifting competitive and regulatory conditions.