LVMH’s 2024 Growth to Moderate; Japan to Lead with Double-Digit Expansion

As the previous pandemic-driven surge in shopping continues to wind down, the luxury industry has been facing a sustained slowdown in growth. Based on Visible Alpha consensus, LVMH (EPA: MC), the French luxury group, is expected to see continued growth normalization. In 2023, LVMH experienced revenue growth of +9% year over year, reaching €86.2 billion, a significant slowdown compared to the more robust +23% seen in 2022. Analysts now expect even more modest revenue growth of +4% year over year in 2024. This adjustment is attributed to a general decline in demand for luxury goods amid economic uncertainties and geopolitical conditions.

While revenue growth across LVMH’s various markets is expected to moderate, Japan stands out with the strongest projected organic growth of +15% in 2024. This growth is supported by a weak yen and an increase in Chinese tourists shopping in the country. In Asia (excluding Japan), which is primarily driven by the Chinese market, organic growth is anticipated to moderate to +5% in 2024. In the U.S., it is also projected at +5%, while Europe is expected to ease to +4%.