Mounjaro Obesity Revenues Projected to Overtake T2D Revenues by 2027

Eli Lilly’s (NYSE: LLY) GLP-1 pathway agonist Mounjaro has been approved globally for type 2 diabetes (T2D) since mid-2022. As expected, the FDA expanded Mounjaro’s approval for obesity on November 8, 2023. Mounjaro will be marketed under the brand name Zepbound for obesity.
Subsequent to the FDA’s decision, the U.K. regulators also expanded Mounjaro’s approval for obesity, and the EU regulators are on track to follow the U.S. and U.K.

Mounjaro is in clinical trials for several other indications. It is in Phase 3 studies for atherosclerosis, congestive heart failure, coronary artery disease, peripheral arterial disease (PAD), sleep apnea syndromes, and vascular diseases. In addition, Mounjaro is in Phase 2 studies for chronic kidney disease (CKD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH).
Visible Alpha consensus revenue estimates show Mounjaro/Zepbound obesity revenues overtaking T2D revenues by 2027. In 2032, Mounjaro/Zepbound consensus revenues are at $20.0 billion for T2D and $30.6 billion for obesity. In 2032, Mounjaro/Zepbound risk-adjusted revenues across all indications are estimated at $48.2 billion ($50.1 billion unadjusted).
Zepbound will compete with Novo Nordisk’s (NYSE: NVO) Wegovy, also approved for obesity. Zepbound belongs to the tirzepatide class, a dual agonist targeting both GLP-1 and GIP receptor pathways. Wegovy belongs to the semaglutide class, a GLP-1 receptor pathway agonist.

Sector: Health Care
Industry: Pharmaceuticals
VA Ticker(s): LLY