Nike Footwear Revenues Slip As It Struggles to Keep Its Edge Amid Rising Competition

Nike (NYSE: NKE) faces a challenging outlook with revenues projected to decline by -10% year-over-year in 2025, following flat performance in 2024. Net income is forecasted to decline by -46% to $3.1 billion. Furthermore, analysts estimate low single-digit revenue growth over the next five years—a modest trajectory for the sportswear giant. Footwear, the company’s largest revenue segment is expected to see revenues decline by -13% to $29.2 billion (see chart).

Nike’s struggles stem partly from strategic missteps. A major reorganization shifted the company’s focus to demographic categories—men’s, women’s, and children’s—abandoning its sports-specific divisions. This restructuring, coupled with a pivot toward a direct-to-consumer (DTC) model at the expense of wholesale partnerships, created opportunities for competitors to expand within key retail chains, eroding Nike’s market share.

Compounding its challenges is intensifying competition from younger brands HOKA, owned by Deckers Outdoor (NYSE: DECK), and On Holding (NYSE: ONON). While these brands generate far less revenue than Nike’s footwear division, their projected growth rates outpace Nike’s, suggesting a shift in consumer preferences. Between 2026 and 2029, Nike and other legacy players like Adidas (ETR: ADS) and Puma (ETR: PUM) are expected to see footwear revenue growth in the 5-10% range, while HOKA and On Holding are projected to achieve continued double-digit gains.