Nintendo to face weak results, but analysts eye rebound with next-gen gaming console

Nintendo (TSE: 7974) is expected to report its full-year fiscal 2025 financial results on Thursday, May 8, with analysts projecting a steep year-on-year decline in sales as its flagship console nears the end of its lifecycle.

Consensus estimates from Visible Alpha suggest fourth-quarter net sales to be down -19.1% year-over-year to JP¥224 billion, continuing its downward trajectory from the previous quarters, with the biggest declines coming from Nintendo’s Switch division at -18.9% to an estimated JP¥199.5 billion. Hardware shipments of the Switch are expected to fall sharply to 1.5 million units in Q4 2025, down from 5 million in the previous quarter. The hybrid console, first launched in 2017, is entering its eighth year on the market and has seen waning demand as consumers await a successor.

Full year net sales projections are at JP¥1.2 trillion, down -29% from last year, with annual Switch hardware sales units projected at 11 million units — down from 16 million last year. Analysts expect this figure to fall further to 5 million units in fiscal 2026.

Despite the 2025 slump, analysts remain upbeat on 2026 projections as Nintendo prepares to launch its next-generation console —Switch 2— in June. The company is expected to enter its new product cycle from a position of relative strength, supported by a broad global footprint and a large installed user base.

In the first quarter of fiscal 2026, net sales from the Switch division — including the new console — is expected to rise +17.7% year-on-year to JP¥262 billion. While legacy Switch unit sales are projected to continue falling to 1.2 million units, the Switch 2 is forecast to see unit sales of 3.5 million in its debut quarter. Overall, net sales are estimated to be up +43% year-on-year.