Open Lending eyes rebound after rocky spell, but risks remain

Open Lending Corporation (NASDAQ: LPRO) is forecast to return to growth in 2025, following three consecutive years of declining revenue driven by broader credit deterioration and turmoil in the used car market.

The Texas-based fintech, which provides analytics and risk-based pricing for automotive loans, is expected to post a +283% year-on-year rise in revenue to $92 million in 2025, according to Visible Alpha consensus estimates. The sharp projected rebound follows a weaker-than-expected fourth quarter in 2024, which led analysts to lower near-term expectations.

Open Lending has struggled in recent years as rising delinquencies, aggressive underwriting in prior cohorts, and falling used-car values weighed on performance. In response, the company has tightened credit standards, exited high-risk borrower segments, and revamped its loss-modelling approach under new leadership.

Program fees — which make up the bulk of Open Lending’s top line — are projected to rise +2% to $58 million in 2025, after declining -11% in 2024 and -20% in 2023. Profit-sharing revenue is expected to stage a strong recovery, jumping +155% to $24 million. However, claims administration fees, a smaller contributor, are forecast to dip marginally by -0.4%.

While the expected rebound suggests early signs of stabilization, execution risks remain elevated amid a still-fragile credit environment and ongoing consumer pressure.