Tesla’s robotaxis could drive ~45% of automotive sales by 2030

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has begun testing its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, deploying a small fleet of existing vehicles over the weekend. The launch marks the electric carmaker’s first step into autonomous ride-hailing, though the cars currently in use are not “Cybercab” — the streamlined, steering-wheel-free vehicle unveiled at Tesla’s “We, Robot” event last October. Instead, the trial involves standard Tesla models, modestly marked with “robotaxi” logos. Tesla also opened a new website for users to sign up to get updates on the robotaxis, which can be hailed via an app.

While full deployment is still underway, we’ve begun to see analysts estimate revenue for robotaxis. Consensus estimates from Visible Alpha, based on projections from three analysts, suggest Cybercab revenues could reach $1 billion in 2026, or 1.3% of Tesla’s total automotive sales. That figure is projected to soar to $75 billion by 2030 — representing roughly 45% of expected vehicle revenue.

Tesla will face competition from incumbents including Alphabet’s Waymo and Amazon’s Zoox, with Waymo being the only company with a fully public self-driving ride-hailing service in the US. Tesla’s launch of its robotaxis comes as the company faces softening demand for its core vehicles. Automotive revenues fell -8% year-on-year in 2024 and are forecast to decline a further -10% in 2025 to $65 billion, before rebounding by +20% in 2026.