Netflix Analysts Pull Forward Subscriber Growth Forecast After Signup Surge

On April 21, Netflix reported exceedingly better-than-expected net new subscribers in their fiscal 1Q20 as COVID-19 induced lockdowns confined people to their homes and spurred demand for their streaming content. Well-timed hits like “Tiger King” and “Ozark” kept Netflix relevant on social media as many shelter-in-place ordinances began, and all told Netflix signed up 15.7M new subscribers in the quarter.

The company believes that a significant portion of these new members are people who would have naturally signed up at some point later in the year. Netflix also warned that as lockdowns end, people will desire to be outside their homes, which, coupled with the pull-forward demand in 1H, may cause lower organic subscriber growth in 2H relative to last year.

Netflix guided fiscal 2Q20 net new subscribers at 7.5 million, but given the considerable uncertainty as to when lockdowns will officially be lifted, they admit the figure is “mostly guess work.” After adjusting their models post-earnings, equity analysts are now forecasting Netflix will add 7.7M subs in 2Q20 and about 35.2M subscribers by the end of 2020, according to Visible Alpha consensus.

Learn more about the ongoing revisions across every sector here.

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