Analysts Forecast Disney+ Hitting Subscriber Goal Three Years Ahead of Schedule

Disney+ Subscriptions Revised Higher

The launch of Disney+ has exceeded most analyst expectations after ending its first quarter with 26.5M subscribers – more than 30% above estimates. Analysts have since raised estimates for 2020 subscribers by 54% to 46M, up from 30M before earnings. At Investor Day last year, Disney forecasted a five-year goal of reaching 60-90M subscribers. The low-end of that guidance is now expected to be achieved three years ahead of schedule, with consensus estimates calling for 61M subscribers by 2021.

Netflix Still Expected To Add More Subscribers

Despite Disney+ being a new service with fresh markets to penetrate, analysts believe Netflix will still add more subscribers over the next few years. While Netflix has fairly saturated the domestic market, international expansion has been its key driver of subscription growth. Disney+ has only launched so far in the USA, Australia, New Zealand, The Netherlands and Canada. The next wave of growth internationally will come in March when it launches in Western Europe and India. Disney+ might be disadvantaged with a smaller budget for content, which the company guided to be $2.5B in 2020 and is far less than the $16.6B Netflix may spend on new streaming content according to analyst estimates.

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