Consumer Services Archives - Page 8 of 9 - Visible Alpha

Visible Alpha Consumer Services

A month ago, the TJX Companies (TJX) reported 1Q17 earnings that slightly missed expectations and sent the stock downward. The company’s Marmaxx segment, which consists primarily of T.J. Maxx and Marshalls stores, reported flat comparable store sales growth and missed consensus expectations of 1.1%. The company also gave 2Q Marmaxx comparable store sales guidance of 1-2%, falling below below consensus expectations of 2.3%.

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Last December, Starbucks management laid out its longer-term growth plans. Central to these plans were targets of high-single digit store growth and mid-single digit comparable store sales growth. How do these targets compare to what analysts are currently modeling for the company?

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On LULU’s fiscal 4Q conference call, senior management noted a material slowdown in stores and on their website to start their 1Q17. Management noted that store traffic softened in February and March, while conversion on their website was negatively impacted.

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eBay’s Marketplace Transaction revenue is a major focus for senior management and investors. In 2016, Marketplace Transaction revenue grew 3.2%, and in the company’s most recent 1Q results, the segment grew 3.1%. This was an improvement from prior years, but the segment continues to lag the broader growth underway in ecommerce.

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Disney reported fiscal 2Q17 results last week that exceeded consensus earnings estimates but missed consensus revenue estimates. The revenue miss largely came from Disney’s Media segment, which made up 30% of the company’s overall revenue and 45% of total operating income in 2016.

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Whole Foods reports fiscal 2Q results on Wednesday, with the results being scrutinized more closely than usual. The reason: activist investor Jana Partners disclosed a 9% ownership stake on April 10th. Jana is pushing for a close review of the business and a potential merger or sale, while management is in the midst of attempting a turnaround. The pressure is on to show results.

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Pandora will report its 1Q earnings next Monday, May 8. As with previous quarters, investors will be watching Advertising revenue for the quarter, which makes up the majority of the revenue for Pandora. Visible Alpha’s consensus estimates have Advertising growth of just 1.5% as management noted that they would be resetting their advertising strategy in 1Q.

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Chipotle reported fiscal 1Q17 results last Wednesday after the close that were well-above expectations on earnings. Management also reiterated its high-single digit comp guidance for the full year and their “stretch goals” of $10 EPS and 20% restaurant-level margins in 2017. However, the stock was only up 2% the day after earnings.

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Investors are closely watching Lowe’s performance as the company has closed the performance gap with Home Depot over the last several quarters. In 4Q, Lowe’s comparable store sales growth of 5.1% was just 70 basis points short of Home Depot’s 5.8% comparable store sales growth.

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Investors have become increasingly bullish on Amazon over the last month with the stock up 7% compared to the S&P’s gain of 1% as of 4/24/17. Let’s take a closer look at Visible Alpha’s consensus estimates to find the source of bullishness.

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