Consumer Services Archives - Page 8 of 9 - Visible Alpha

Visible Alpha Consumer Services

eBay’s Marketplace Transaction revenue is a major focus for senior management and investors. In 2016, Marketplace Transaction revenue grew 3.2%, and in the company’s most recent 1Q results, the segment grew 3.1%. This was an improvement from prior years, but the segment continues to lag the broader growth underway in ecommerce.

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Disney reported fiscal 2Q17 results last week that exceeded consensus earnings estimates but missed consensus revenue estimates. The revenue miss largely came from Disney’s Media segment, which made up 30% of the company’s overall revenue and 45% of total operating income in 2016.

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Whole Foods reports fiscal 2Q results on Wednesday, with the results being scrutinized more closely than usual. The reason: activist investor Jana Partners disclosed a 9% ownership stake on April 10th. Jana is pushing for a close review of the business and a potential merger or sale, while management is in the midst of attempting a turnaround. The pressure is on to show results.

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Pandora will report its 1Q earnings next Monday, May 8. As with previous quarters, investors will be watching Advertising revenue for the quarter, which makes up the majority of the revenue for Pandora. Visible Alpha’s consensus estimates have Advertising growth of just 1.5% as management noted that they would be resetting their advertising strategy in 1Q.

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Chipotle reported fiscal 1Q17 results last Wednesday after the close that were well-above expectations on earnings. Management also reiterated its high-single digit comp guidance for the full year and their “stretch goals” of $10 EPS and 20% restaurant-level margins in 2017. However, the stock was only up 2% the day after earnings.

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Investors are closely watching Lowe’s performance as the company has closed the performance gap with Home Depot over the last several quarters. In 4Q, Lowe’s comparable store sales growth of 5.1% was just 70 basis points short of Home Depot’s 5.8% comparable store sales growth.

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Investors have become increasingly bullish on Amazon over the last month with the stock up 7% compared to the S&P’s gain of 1% as of 4/24/17. Let’s take a closer look at Visible Alpha’s consensus estimates to find the source of bullishness.

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Amazon’s AWS (Amazon Web Services) segment is expected to continue to play an increasing role in total company revenue, according to current Visible Alpha consensus. AWS as a percentage of total revenue is slated to increase by over 300 basis points over the next two years, from 9.0% of total company revenue in 2016  to 12.3% in 2019.

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Netflix (NFLX) will report 1Q17 results after the market close on Monday, April 17th. While investors will pay special attention to NFLX’s ability to grow its international subscriber base, they will also keep an eye on the company’s efforts to improve its margins. The current Visible Alpha consensus estimates show steadily increasing margins (Operating, EBITDA and Free Cash Flow) over the long term, even in light of steadily decreasing revenue growth and an expected increase in content spending in both original and licensed content.

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Costco reported March monthly sales last week that demonstrated continued comparable store sales acceleration. The company reported 6% comparable store sales growth (including gas and FX) for March. As a result of the positive number, estimates have been revised upward for the company through the rest of the year as well as into 2018. Investors are expecting comparable store sales to accelerate as several tailwinds help, including the removal of the tobacco headwind, easing deflation trends, increasing membership fees, and a credit card change.

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