BYD vs. Tesla; Accenture’s Growth Dip; Solaria Ramps Up Solar
By: Visible Alpha Research & Innovation Lab
In our weekly round-up of the top charts and market-moving analyst insights: BYD (SZSE: 002594) leads in vehicle sales but Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) leads in revenue; Accenture (NYSE: ACN) is expected to see a modest growth rebound in 2024 after a tough 2023; Spain’s Solaria (SIX/BME: SLR) is ramping up solar capacity, driving revenue projections.
BYD Leads in Vehicle Sales but Tesla Dominates in Revenue
BYD and Tesla are two of the biggest players in the global electric vehicle (EV) space. While Tesla sells only EVs, BYD sells both EVs and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. In 2022, China-based BYD (SZSE: 002594) sold 1.9 million vehicles, 555K units more than Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) did globally. According to Visible Alpha consensus, the gap between the units sold by the two companies is only expected to widen in 2023, with BYD projected to sell nearly 3 million vehicles, 1.1 million units more than Tesla. By 2025, BYD is projected to sell 4.4 million vehicles versus Tesla at an expected 2.7 million.
Despite BYD selling more units, however, Tesla still generates higher automotive revenue. In 2023, analysts expect Tesla to generate $82.4 billion in automotive revenue, compared to $67.8 billion for BYD. Between 2023-2025, BYD’s automotive revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of 27% to $109 billion, while Tesla’s automotive revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 21% to $120 billion.
Accenture to See Modest Growth Rebound in 2024 After a Tough 2023
In 2023, Accenture (NYSE: ACN) experienced a significant decline in revenue growth as macroeconomic headwinds saw IT project ramp-downs, cautious spending patterns, and softer-than-expected bookings. According to Visible Alpha consensus, the company is expected to see a modest recovery in fiscal 2024, with a projected 4% growth in revenue. Specifically, Accenture’s Consulting business, which saw a -1% year-over-year decline in revenue in 2023, is anticipated to rebound with 1% revenue growth in 2024, reaching $34 billion. However, growth in the company’s Managed Services division is expected to slow down further to 6% in 2024, hitting $32.4 billion.
Spain’s Solaria to Ramp Up Solar Capacity, Driving Revenue Projections
Spain’s Solaria Energía y Medio Ambiente (SIX/BME: SLR), a solar power generation company, is set to substantially boost its installed capacity. According to Visible Alpha consensus, analysts expect Solaria’s total capacity to increase from 1,172 megawatts (MW) in 2022 to an estimated 2,048 MW in 2023, reaching 9,842 MW by 2030. Between 2023 and 2026, the company is projected to see annual double-digit growth in its installed capacity in Spain, Italy, and Portugal. This expansion is expected to drive the company’s solar production volume from 1,434 gigawatt hours (GWh) in 2022 to 2,729 GWh in 2023, and then grow at a projected CAGR of 30% to 16,944 GWh by 2030. With rising capacity and volume, Solaria’s total solar revenue is forecasted to increase to €211 million in 2023, and then grow at a CAGR of 20% to €772 million by 2030.
Eli Lilly’s Obesity Drug Surge; Plug Power’s Hydrogen Ecosystem; OPAL’s Renewable Natural Gas Focus
By: Visible Alpha Research & Innovation Lab
In our weekly round-up of the top charts and market-moving analyst insights: Eli Lilly’s (NYSE: LLY) Mounjaro is poised for a surge in sales with expected approval for obesity; Plug Power (NASDAQ: PLUG) is expected to see rising revenues fueled by its hydrogen ecosystem; OPAL Fuels’ (NASDAQ: OPAL) strategic focus on renewable natural gas is set to boost future revenue.
Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro Set for Revenue Surge with Expected Obesity Approval
According to Visible Alpha consensus, Eli Lilly’s (NYSE: LLY) Mounjaro is expected to generate revenue of $4.61 billion in 2023 and more than double in 2024, reaching a total of $9.51 billion. Looking ahead to 2030, consensus estimates suggest that Mounjaro’s revenue for type 2 diabetes (T2D) and obesity is projected to reach as high as $42 billion.
Mounjaro was approved in May 2022 for T2D, but has not yet been approved for obesity. In October 2022, Eli Lilly secured FDA fast-track designation for the possible approval of Mounjaro for obesity. FDA approval for obesity is expected by the end of 2023. Risk-adjusted revenue projections for Mounjaro are nearly as high as projections that are not adjusted for risk, as the probability of success for FDA approval for obesity is 97.33%, according to Visible Alpha consensus.
Mounjaro (tirzepatide) is a dual agonist targeting the GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide-1) and GIP (glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide) receptor pathways. Agonism of GLP-1 and GIP receptors leads to an increase in insulin secretion, improvement of insulin sensitivity, reduction in glucagon levels, decreased food intake, and slowing of gastric emptying. The net effect is glucose control for T2D, and weight loss for obesity.
Plug Power to See Rising Revenues Fueled By Hydrogen Ecosystem
According to Visible Alpha consensus, hydrogen fuel cell company Plug Power (NASDAQ: PLUG) is expected to see revenues jump across all of its segments in the forecast period, boosted by the company’s investments in building a hydrogen ecosystem. Plug Power has ambitious plans to build a vertically integrated ecosystem with the aim of becoming a one-stop shop for the hydrogen economy.
Analysts expect the company’s three main revenue segments — product, services, and fuel delivered to customers — to see annual revenue growth in 2023 of 85%, 17%, and 38%, respectively. Between 2023-2030, total product revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of 32%, services at 27%, and fuel delivered to customers at 60%.
Within products, the company’s largest revenue-generating segment, revenue from electrolyzers is projected to reach $210 million (+639% YoY) in 2023, hydrogen infrastructure sites revenue to $266 million (+88% YoY), and cell system/forklift units/gendrive units revenue to $298 million (+43% YoY). The company’s total revenue is projected to be $1.2 billion in 2023, and analysts expect the company to become profitable by 2024, generating an estimated gross profit of $228 million.
OPAL Fuels’ Strategic Focus on Renewable Natural Gas to Boost Future Revenue
OPAL Fuels (NASDAQ: OPAL), which specializes in the production and distribution of renewable natural gas (RNG) and renewable electricity, has recently made a strategic shift, placing a stronger emphasis on RNG generation. With the RNG transition, analysts anticipate robust revenue growth for the company in the coming years. According to Visible Alpha consensus, OPAL Fuels is expected to boost its RNG production volume from an estimated 3.0 million MMBtu in 2023 to a projected 9.7 million MMBtu by 2025, growing at a CAGR of 82%.
Total revenue for the company is estimated to grow by 15% year over year in 2023, partially offset by an expected 7% decline in RNG revenue. This decline is primarily due to the company selling fewer units of RNG fuel in the first half of 2023, deferring environmental credit sales amid lower market prices, as the market awaited new clean fuel standards from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). In 2024, however, analysts expect RNG revenues to pick up, growing 100% year over year to $236 million, while total revenue is projected to grow by 56% to $421 million.
Forecasting the Global Business Impact and Recovery from Covid-19
By: Visible Alpha Research & Innovation Lab
A Global Meta-Analysis of Investment Research Analyst Forecasts
While the world reels from the social and economic shocks caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and the measures taken to mitigate its impact, the rebound in equity markets suggests that investors are already looking forward to a return to some semblance of normalcy.
But how does the market expect that recovery to play out?
