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Visible Alpha Health Care

Wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is an area of intense drug development focus, given the large markets and unmet need. Innovation in wet AMD drug development threatens current market leaders and the standard of care.

Here, we briefly summarize wet AMD markets and discuss recent clinical data from two emerging players in the wet AMD landscape, Opthea and Ocular Therapeutix. We also provide consensus revenue projections for Opthea’s and Ocular Therapeutix’s drugs to contrast with projections for the market leader, Regeneron’s Eylea. Visible Alpha consensus shows declining Eylea revenue estimates in the next several years due to the emergence of new drugs like those from Opthea and Ocular Therapeutix.

Background on age-related macular degeneration

Macular degeneration results from damage to the macula, the part of the eye in the center of the retina responsible for central vision and the ability to see fine details clearly. Dry Age-Related Macular Degeneration (AMD), the early form of AMD, accounts for 90 percent of diagnosed cases. Wet (exudative or neovascular) AMD, the more advanced form, accounts for approximately 10 percent of cases but results in 90 percent of legal blindness. It’s the most common cause of visual impairment among elderly patients in developed countries.

Here’s more about wet AMD and its treatment:

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Investors pay close attention to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) approval process. The FDA’s stance on innovation as it relates to safety and efficacy is crucial to any investment in therapeutic drug development. Innovation in drug development moves at the pace of the FDA.

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In our weekly round-up of the top charts and market-moving analyst insights: Seagen is expected to show sharp sales growth as Pfizer moves to acquire the biotech innovator; Apple TV+ revenue is estimated to double by 2024; Netflix is expected to collect more than $20/month in subscriber revenue per U.S. and Canadian subscriber by 2027; and Softbank’s Arm may grow sales more than 70% as Softbank explores an IPO for the chip designer.

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In our weekly round-up of the top charts and market-moving analyst insights, Paramount’s streaming subscribers are projected to grow, new drugs for age-related macular degeneration are projected to challenge market leaders, and Sportradar’s U.S. business is expected to drive growth.

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Moderna’s novel coronavirus vaccine (mRNA-1273) is a front-running candidate to be one of the first available to market. If successful, the vaccine would also be the world’s first messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccine. Moderna has spent nine years developing mRNA technology that could theoretically manipulate the body to produce designer proteins with therapeutic or preventive benefits.

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The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recently approved Gilead’s antiviral Remdesivir for emergency use authorization (EUA) as a treatment for COVID-19 in severe stages. Gilead is donating their current supply of about 1.5M individual doses, equating to more than 140K treatment courses (assuming a 10-day treatment course), which will be distributed by the federal government to areas most impacted by COVID-19. Gilead’s goal is to manufacture 500K treatment courses by October, 1M by December and, if needed, millions more afterwards.
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A Global Meta-Analysis of Investment Research Analyst Forecasts

While the world reels from the social and economic shocks caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and the measures taken to mitigate its impact, the rebound in equity markets suggests that investors are already looking forward to a return to some semblance of normalcy.

But how does the market expect that recovery to play out?

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Note from the Communications Committee: We are looking for additional support in improving communication at Visible Alpha. This newsletter is a great step in the right direction, but there is more we can do with your help! Email [email protected] to learn how to get involved.

 

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Teva Pharmaceutical Industries is down ~60% year-to-date amid competitive concerns surrounding its portfolio of drugs. Competitive concerns have largely been focused on two areas: the company’s Generic Medicines segment and the company’s Multiple Sclerosis drug, Copaxone. A closer look at the size of the revisions and investor growth expectations provides a justification for the poor stock performance for the year.

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Bed Bath & Beyond BBBY by Visible Alpha
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY): Analysts Expect BBBY Estimates to Fall Short of Management Guidance

Last week, Bed Bath & Beyond reported 1Q17 results that were well-below expectations. The results were highlighted by -2.0% comparable store sales growth, which compared to the company’s full-year guidance of “relatively flat to slightly positive” comparable store sales growth. Reported EPS of $0.53 was also well-below consensus of $0.66. Read more…

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