Visible Alpha + Business Breakdowns
By: Visible Alpha
A Recap of February’s Business Breakdowns Podcasts
In February 2022, Visible Alpha was a proud sponsor of Business Breakdowns, a podcast that dives deep into a single company with investors and operators that know it best. Visible Alpha deep consensus data on each company aligns with just how in-depth the conversations go in each episode.
Below is a link to each episode along with a short report highlighting a key revenue driver of the featured company using Visible Alpha consensus data.
February 2, 2022 |Twitter: Towing the Clown Car out of the Goldmine
In this episode, listeners find that the investment debate is about much more than just revenue and EPS. The majority of the conversation focused on KPIs is Twitter’s business model, including mDAUs and ARPU. Through our unique consensus dataset, we are able to provide the market perspective on these two KPIs.
February 9, 2022 |UPS: Leaders of the Package
During this episode, listeners find that operating margins are the “guiding light” that drives the parcel delivery industry, specifically UPS, FedEx and Amazon. Historically, e-commerce has hurt operating margin quite substantially for UPS and FedEx, but recent investments in automation have helped to improve operating efficiency. Visible Alpha consensus shows that analysts expect that these businesses will at least maintain this margin.
February 16, 2022 |Basic-Fit: Increasing Returns to Scale
During the episode, listeners learn that the Netherlands-based gym operator is running a similar playbook to U.S.-based Planet Fitness. By using economies of scale, and cutting out expensive but rarely used amenities, Basic-Fit offers a gym membership that undercuts mid-market gym rivals as well as capturing significant demand from traditional non-gym goers. Visible Alpha consensus data highlights two KPIs discussed in the podcast: number of gyms and operating income per club.
February 23, 2022 |The New York Times: The Empire Strikes Back
During the episode, listeners learn how The New York Times embarked on a strategy in 2014 to shift from declining print subscriptions with a free-ad supported model to a digital and subscription-based model. This resulted in a material uptick in digital subscriptions. This strategy, bolstered by factors such as the coronavirus pandemic and the U.S. presidential election, resulted in digital revenue surpassing print revenue in 2020. According to Visible Alpha consensus data, digital revenue and digital-only subscribers are expected to continue to grow with a continued decline in print.
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“Transitory” Inflation Meats Reality
By: Visible Alpha
With markets showing high levels of volatility and the Federal Reserve discussing the possibility of raising rates several times this year, investors continue to be hyper-focused on where inflation will land over the next several months. Read more
Want Some Fries With That? Fast-Food’s Appetizing System-Wide Sales
By: Visible Alpha
While the pandemic has been a particularly challenging time for the restaurant industry, a look at Visible Alpha’s Restaurant KPI Forecasts dashboard shows some encouraging news for quick-service restaurants such as McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD), Yum! Brands (NYSE:YUM), Restaurants Brands International (NYSE:QSR), Domino’s (NYSE:DPZ), and Wendy’s (NASDAQ:WEN), among others. We see from the dashboard table data below that many restaurants had rough times during the height of Covid-19 last year. However, analysts expect many of these restaurants, particularly quick-service brands, to see their 2021 system-wide sales not only recover, but also exceed pre-pandemic levels.
It was no surprise that hotels were among the “social distance losers” during the pandemic. When lockdowns went into effect, reservations were canceled, properties shuttered, and staff sent home. With uncertainty hanging in the air, hotel profitability took a massive hit, falling 34.3% in 2020 – the worst of any industry except for airlines, which fell 58.8%. [1]
However, since the spring of 2020, hotel stocks have rebounded sharply on investor optimism over a faster economic reopening. Shares of Wyndham Hotels & Resorts (NYSE:WH) increased 160%, for example, while Marriott International Inc.’s (NASDAQ:MAR) stock rose 100% since April 1, 2020. [2]
As recovery from the pandemic has accelerated in some markets, analysts have revised expectations for hotels upwards, particularly in China and the U.S. Analysts expect the industry’s recovery will be uneven, however, given lingering challenges stemming from the pandemic.
Reevaluate your investment research budget
By: Joe Boo
Do you ever wonder if you’ve overpaid for a broker’s services? What if a misalignment in your spend versus consumption cost you an extra $75,000? Wouldn’t a budgeting tool be helpful in better understanding your month-to-month spend?
Hotel Stocks Now Valued Higher Than Before Covid-19
By: Visible Alpha Research & Innovation Lab
The hotel industry is facing headwinds caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, which brought leisure and business travel to a virtual standstill in the first half of 2020. Now, as countries begin lifting travel restrictions after some signs of controlling the virus, there is some optimism in the market that pent-up demand to travel might be underestimated. Nevertheless, as of now Wall Street analysts do not expect large hoteliers will see a full recovery in occupancy before 2022, according to Visible Alpha consensus.
Analysts Still Forecast Slow Recovery For Cruise Liners
By: Visible Alpha Research & Innovation Lab
The cruise industry was severely hurt by the novel coronavirus pandemic after multiple ships were quarantined at sea for extended periods of time, leading to a halt of new departures and cancelled bookings. While ships have been anchored there has been tremendous uncertainty about the cruise industry’s viability in terms of liquidity and practicality, since many ships rely on circulated air and can not easily accommodate social distancing protocols.
Netflix Analysts Pull Forward Subscriber Growth Forecast After Signup Surge
By: Visible Alpha Research & Innovation Lab
On April 21, Netflix reported exceedingly better-than-expected net new subscribers in their fiscal 1Q20 as COVID-19 induced lockdowns confined people to their homes and spurred demand for their streaming content. Well-timed hits like “Tiger King” and “Ozark” kept Netflix relevant on social media as many shelter-in-place ordinances began, and all told Netflix signed up 15.7M new subscribers in the quarter.
Read more
Forecasting the Global Business Impact and Recovery from Covid-19
By: Visible Alpha Research & Innovation Lab
A Global Meta-Analysis of Investment Research Analyst Forecasts
While the world reels from the social and economic shocks caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and the measures taken to mitigate its impact, the rebound in equity markets suggests that investors are already looking forward to a return to some semblance of normalcy.
But how does the market expect that recovery to play out?
COVID-19 Analyst Revisions Ahead of Earnings Season
By: Visible Alpha Research & Innovation Lab
Earnings season is here, and companies are expected to update full-year guidance to reflect the impact of the COVID-19 crisis. As events have unfolded since the start of the year some analysts have made revisions to their estimates accordingly.
